A Criminological Perspective

The Hidden Cost
of Hosting

What happens to crime near stadiums on game day?
21 U.S. cities · MLB & NFL · 2015–2023

×8.7 More assaults near NFL stadiums in the hour after a home game ends, compared to away game days at the same venue.
+593% More larceny thefts near NFL stadiums in the hour before kickoff — the crowd arrives, and so do the opportunities.
+44% More larceny near MLB stadiums on home game days — a consistent pattern across 21 cities and 8 seasons.

Scroll to explore the findings

Travis M. Carter School of Criminology and Criminal Justice · University of Nebraska at Omaha
Richard K. Moule Jr. Department of Criminology · University of South Florida
Jed Knode School of Criminal Justice · Michigan State University

Section 01 — The Pattern

Crime rises near stadiums
when games are here

This is not a comparison between busy game days and quiet off-days. Every result here compares the same venue, same time of day, same day of week — on days when the team plays at home versus days when the team is playing away. What changes is whether tens of thousands of people show up.

Across 21 U.S. cities and eight seasons, larceny and assault consistently increase within one kilometer of stadiums on home game days. The pattern is clear — but its magnitude varies dramatically by sport, crime type, and timing.

How to read these charts: Each point shows the Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) for home vs. away games. An IRR of 2.0 means twice as many incidents on home game days. The horizontal line at 1.0 is the null — no difference. Error bars are 95% confidence intervals.

Spatial Results — Within 1km of Stadium

IRR for home vs. away games · MLB (top) and NFL (bottom)

NFL effects are dramatically larger than MLB across every crime type — likely because NFL games draw an average of 69,641 fans compared to 29,557 for MLB. More people, more opportunity.

Robbery is the exception in both sports: no significant difference on home game days, regardless of distance or timing. The pattern is concentrated in larceny and assault — opportunistic theft and interpersonal violence, both of which scale with crowd size and alcohol.

Section 02 — The Method

How we measured this

The core challenge is identifying a valid counterfactual. We solve it by comparing home games to away games at the same venue. When the Dodgers play in San Francisco, Dodger Stadium still exists — it's just empty. That empty stadium day is the baseline.

Study Design

Spatial bands and temporal windows

Crime counts are aggregated within three concentric distance bands around each venue centroid, and within three temporal windows relative to the game clock. A difference-in-differences model then estimates the effect of hosting a home game, controlling for venue fixed effects, day of week, time of day, and season.

Section 03 — Timing

Two crimes,
two different stories

Larceny and assault don't follow the same clock. Property crime starts before the game begins — as crowds gather, so do opportunities for theft. Assault concentrates after the final whistle, when alcohol has accumulated over hours and emotions run high.

Temporal Results — Within 1km

IRR by time window for home vs. away games

MLB larceny peaks before first pitch: Larceny near MLB stadiums is 80.5% higher in the hour before a home game begins compared to away game days — as crowds gather, so do opportunities for theft. Assault tells a different story, concentrating during and after the game rather than before.

Section 04 — Venue Variation

The rule — and
the exception

The national pattern is consistent, but its magnitude varies substantially across venues. At Dodger Stadium, assaults jumped 751% above the away-game baseline — the largest increase of any MLB venue. Among NFL stadiums, Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh showed the largest larceny increase.

Then there is Wrigley Field — the sole MLB venue where assault was lower on home game days than on away game days. The only exception in the entire dataset. Why? The built environment around Wrigley, the density of bars in Wrigleyville, the composition of the neighborhood — all remain open questions for future research.

Venue-Specific Deviations from Average Effect

Random slope deviations · Teal = above average · Tan = below average · Bars are 95% credible intervals

Sport

Crime Type

Section 05 — Implications

What this means
for cities and venues

The concentration of crime near stadiums on home game days is not incidental. It is a predictable, measurable consequence of how large-scale public events reshape the opportunity structure for crime — and it falls most heavily on the neighborhoods immediately surrounding these venues.

Stadiums are frequently built with public subsidies. If they also generate measurable increases in nearby crime — and the associated public safety costs — that is relevant to how cities weigh the costs and benefits of hosting professional sports. Police deployment, event security protocols, and urban planning around venues all have a role to play.

This is an observational study. The quasi-experimental design establishes a strong association, not definitive causation. Sensitivity analyses using randomization inference and alternative model specifications are consistent with the main findings.

Interactive Explorer

Explore the full
dataset yourself

Select a league, crime type, distance band, and time window to see the result from the main models.

Explorer Results